« What's on your mind? »

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Frosti
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

21 Mar 2020, 04:22

We have a lost of hope! Short version.
There's a big gap between letality in Italy and Germany. Why? In Germany mostly we do nothing in virus infections like the flu and in this case corona virus. Italian medical professionals applied their patients (it's documented in only one case at moment) a mixture of up to 5 drugs in hope this will help. One was used in a high dose. The problem is interaction. They used an antibiotic drug that we avoid here (Moxifloxacin - is better not to give old people). They use 2 drugs against HIV and not enough they used Interferon , an biological protein that increases the reaction of the immune system. In most cases this protein induces fever. So the immune system is pushed to maximum reaction and what will happen? It kills the virus and the infected body cell. This is like deleting parts on your HDD by physical destroying the sector. How long your HDD will stay alive. I see only one case. But if this the main action in italy, this is the answer for the gap in my question I thought about one week. China used less drugs, but they used untested drugs for this virus. So I think there's no big problem at now. The problem is for a doctor, do nothing and the patient died, you get in contact with the law. The german position (i hope we preferred it for the future) is watchfull waiting and this looks like we do nothing. The goverment is still in same position. If they waiting (do nothing) the people have the feelings that there's no protection. But now we have an exponential overprotection in Europe. Such overprotection will stop infection spreading for a moment, but shown in history cases, the infection comes back and sadly more dangerous. If we have no vaccination only immune people can stop spreading.

Remark: this is my opinion today. There's no good data about this virus. It's not possible to measure the infection status in sick people at now. We talk about a ghost. The used test at moment has a high error rate due to the technology used (PCR). It detects the virus RNA. One molecule and the test is positiv. We can not say this tested people is infected, maybe your desk is also positiv. So be calmed!
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nnnik
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

21 Mar 2020, 07:13

The high lethality simply stems from the effect that only a minor portion of the infected populace is actually tested positively for the virus. (The actual lethality is assumed to be around 0.1%)
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SOTE
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

21 Mar 2020, 08:00

As the coronavirus is very serious and hopefully we don't want people to be misinformed, the WHO estimates the death rate at 3.4%, and that it's 10X more lethal than seasonal flu (which estimates are at 0.1%). This is based on confirmed cases being diagnosed, and then calculating death and survival rates. While it's true there are many people who are untested, it also means there can be many who have died from the coronavirus that weren't diagnosed properly, particularly earlier on when people didn't know what it was or didn't think it was in their country.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

The NY Times gave an adjusted report that the death rate in Wuhan China was 1.4%, based on the journal Nature Medicine. But be it 3.4% or 1.4%, that will still be a lot of people dying, because of how contagious the coronavirus is. And people can hide indoors for only so long.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/health/wuhan-coronavirus-deaths.html
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nnnik
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

21 Mar 2020, 08:42

The 3.4% figure is just the number of confirmed cases vs. confirmed deaths. Its also outdated - doing the same calculation now would yield a mortality rate of 4.17%.
While the 0.1 just maybe mixing the values up with the seasonal flu mortality.
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gregster
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

21 Mar 2020, 19:56

Well, Euromo explictily states to take its data re Covid with caution because it might not be up-to-date (and just a few days can make a big difference, when we are on an trajectory with exponential growth). Locally, like in the Milan/Bergamo area, for example, there is definitely a large spike in mortality.

Apart from that: every other website, forum, social medium and personal interaction is already dominated by Covid. Do we really need to replicate that here again?
I understand that sharing is also a coping mechanism, but imho, at some point, the marginal added value is getting pretty small.
guest3456
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

22 Mar 2020, 14:37

adblock plus is no longer blocking youtube for me. is anyone else seeing this?

garry
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

22 Mar 2020, 16:18

you mean , you see advertising ? I use uBlock Origin
and youtube-dl.exe is working yet ...
guest3456
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

23 Mar 2020, 00:23

garry wrote:
22 Mar 2020, 16:18
you mean , you see advertising ? I use uBlock Origin
and youtube-dl.exe is working yet ...
yes i'm now seeing advertising as of 2 days ago :(

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Frosti
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

27 Mar 2020, 07:28

EuroMomo is hosted in Denmark. I can`t managed what organisation is behind it. If I understand what they do, so they used an algorithm to evaluate statistical the saisonal flu overdeath. So I think it's not possible to see a small excess in any other infection cases. Am I right?

I'm now a indicated person who stands in contact with 5 covid-19 cases. No problem for me and the family stays well. My first case. Awaiting the next one's.
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

09 Apr 2020, 12:37

Bill Wi the Science Fi :)
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TheArkive
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

09 Apr 2020, 12:47

This is the kind of stuff we need now 😁😁
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

10 Apr 2020, 18:42

Now free and open-source! :+1:
https://www.sandboxie.com/
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jballi
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

02 May 2020, 22:27

The United States just reported its deadliest day for coronavirus patients as states reopen. 2,909 deaths in the last 24 hours.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html

If you live in the United States and you want to know what your state (or nearby state) is doing, here is more information.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-coronavirus-trnd/

Correction: Changed from 2,909 "new cases" in the last 24 hours to 2909 "deaths" in the last 24 hours.
Last edited by jballi on 03 May 2020, 13:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Frosti
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

03 May 2020, 05:24

The American authorities are faster than authorities in the rest of the world! All over the world there is a days-long gap between receipt, processing and assignment of a death certificate to those who died from the Corona Virus.
I have read that this process is usually between ?2 days? and up to 14 days. I suspect the deadliest day was at some point during this period! So generally not in the last 24 hours.
This is a statistical bias and I think that a country should be more careful with such reports.
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BNOLI
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

03 May 2020, 08:34

Frosti wrote:
03 May 2020, 05:24
The American authorities are faster than authorities in the rest of the world! All over the world there is a days-long gap between receipt, processing and assignment of a death certificate to those who died from the Corona Virus.
I have read that this process is usually between ?2 days? and up to 14 days. I suspect the deadliest day was at some point during this period! So generally not in the last 24 hours.
This is a statistical bias and I think that a country should be more careful with such reports.
"Ich glaube keiner Statistik, die ich nicht selbst gefälscht habe" :yawn:
The American authorities are faster than authorities in the rest of the world!
Yep, there's "so much winning!". Let's guess all over the world they care for more important things first ...
And btw, this isn't a numbers game. :lolno:
Remember to use [code]CODE[/code]-tags for your multi-line scripts. Stay safe, stay inside, and remember washing your hands for 20 sec !
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Frosti
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

03 May 2020, 22:59

BNOLI, I only think that's a shame what happens in the US to the people. Ruthless, cold in the heart. The sociology of a society and politics devoted to money.
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jballi
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Re: « What's on your mind? »

04 May 2020, 01:58

We are going to get out of this Coronavirus mess eventually but not without proper testing. In the United States, we have weeks if not months to go before wide scale testing even begins. John Oliver provides an excellent summary of what is going on. Yes, there is NSFW strong language. Watch it anyway.

Coronavirus VI: Testing: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rl4c-jr7g0

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